Progression at GCSE

Progress throughout school life is important both in terms of educational achievement and the social dimensions. Recently the Government has launched a campaign called Respect highlighting how important the social dimensions are for children, and the community at large. Some of the most important educational test are the GCSE exam a child takes towards the end of their compulsory education. These have now been monitored and statistically analysed since 1994 which gives a wealth of information. With the release of the 2005 GCSE results NEAG has produced a series of charts showing a range of different analysis of the GCSE results.

The first series to be released shows the performance of individual Northumberland High Schools over time compared with the Northumberland and England averages. Trendlines are also included which show the overall trend for individual schools, Northumberland and England.

Examining these charts can be useful in predicting future achievement levels. It is possible to look at a year, say 2008 and see what results might be achieved. It is also possible to look at whether a school is improving or not. Whether a schools average is influence by a one off set of bad results, whether the school is consistent or whether its results fluctuate.

However, this is not an exact science and each year the children at a school may produced significantly better, or worse, results. There are other factors involved such as the percentage of Special Education Needs children, percentage of gifted and talented children, reorganisations, bad weather, and unpredictable events such as Foot & Mouth. The latter affected may rural schools in Northumberland in 2001 and 2002 and the ripple effect of this is still being witnessed in school results as the pupils in those years move through the education system.

There are two series of charts available showing 5 A*-C GCSE results.

The first series shows basic results from 1994 to 2005 together with trendlines to show progression and is available here.

The second series shows results including Maths and English from 2002 to 2005 (figures for earlier yearrs have not been released by DfES) and these are available here.

Comparing the two series of charts is useful in identifying trends and progression. Together they can act as a powerful tool to predict the future trends of a school at this key exam stage.